If you're pricing a home above $1 million in Missoula this year, the "hot market" headlines are not describing your competition. Brint Wahlberg, a broker with Windermere Real Estate in Missoula, said earlier this year that homes listed above $1 million are sitting on the market for about 17.8 months' worth of supply, by far the most oversupplied tier in the city, and that they now make up 22% of all active listings. Meanwhile, anything priced at or below the citywide median is running short, with buyers competing for a shrinking pool of homes. Two segments of the same market are moving in opposite directions at the same time.
That split is the real story behind Missoula's median home price, and it matters more than the number itself if you're trying to compare neighborhoods rather than just check a citywide average.
The number that's already misleading you
The Missoula Organization of REALTORS' 2026 Five Valleys Housing Report put the area's median sale price at $550,000 for 2025, a 2.2% dip from 2024's $562,400, even as closed sales rose 4.6% to 1,029 units. Broken out by property type, single-family homes closed at a median of $584,000, townhomes at $497,950, condos at $343,750, and manufactured homes on owned land at $366,000. That's four different medians hiding inside the one number most people quote.
The gap doesn't stop at property type. A midyear read on live listings found that as of July 2026, the median asking price for homes currently on the market in Missoula was $897,000, while the median for homes that had actually closed over the prior six months was $549,250, a difference of more than $340,000. That gap doesn't mean sellers are cutting prices by a third. It means the homes for sale right now are a different mix than the homes that typically sell, weighted toward the oversupplied top of the market.
Wahlberg's read on inventory backs this up directly: overall market supply sat around five months at the end of 2025, close to the six-month mark realtors consider balanced, but that average was doing a lot of work to cover for a badly split market underneath it.
Same city, different markets
Once you move from citywide figures to named neighborhoods, the spread gets even wider. Recent listing data shows single-family homes in the University District carrying the highest median in the city, around $886,000, while homes in Franklin to the Fort medianed closer to $449,000, a gap of roughly $437,000 between two Missoula neighborhoods, almost as large as the citywide median itself.
Lower Rattlesnake sits in between, with a single-family median near $599,700. Within that same neighborhood, homes on acreage-zoned parcels have carried a higher premium, closer to $667,000, and have sold in about 35 days on average, well under the national average of 57 days.
| Neighborhood | Approximate Single-Family Median | Direction Under the New Zoning Code |
|---|---|---|
| University District | ~$886,000 | Near campus; not named among the areas rezoned in current plan amendments |
| Lower Rattlesnake | ~$599,700 (acreage parcels near $667,000) | Most of the historic district now zoned for higher density |
| Franklin to the Fort | ~$449,000 | Shifting toward a more strictly residential designation |
That last column is the part a citywide median can never show you, and it's about to matter more than it has in years.
The zoning vote that just redrew the map
On February 2, 2026, the Missoula City Council approved a new Unified Development Code and zoning map, the implementation tool for the Our Missoula 2045 Land Use Plan adopted in December 2024. The new code and map took effect March 4, 2026. It allows apartments in most residential areas and is meant to help the city produce the 1,100 to 1,500 new housing units per year that planners say are needed over the next decade to keep pace with growth. As Montana Free Press reported at the time, the new rules mark a real change for neighborhoods that had been largely insulated from development in recent years.
Lower Rattlesnake is the clearest example. Twenty blocks of the neighborhood, running from Pierce to Monroe and Elm to Vine, were placed on the National Register of Historic Places in 1999 as a district of working-class homes built mostly between 1900 and 1950. Preservation advocates who reviewed the adopted map say eighteen of those twenty blocks are now zoned for higher density, opening the door to multi-unit buildings in a neighborhood that has spent decades trading almost entirely on single-family character and walkable proximity to Greenough Park and the Rattlesnake Wilderness.
Franklin to the Fort is heading a different direction. Under amendments adopted alongside the new code, select parcels there and in the Riverfront neighborhood are shifting from Urban Mixed-Use High to Urban Residential High, a change meant to reflect their primarily residential character rather than open them to more commercial or mixed-use building. The same citywide plan is loosening density limits in one legacy neighborhood and tightening them toward residential-only in another.
Why this matters if you're comparing neighborhoods
For a buyer relocating to Missoula and weighing neighborhoods on price alone, that zoning split changes the question. Lower Rattlesnake's current premium reflects scarcity and character built up over a century. Whether that premium holds depends partly on how much new density actually gets built on those eighteen blocks over the next several years, not just on where prices sit today. Franklin to the Fort's more affordable median, by contrast, now comes with a designation aimed at preserving its residential feel rather than opening it further.
For sellers, especially anyone pricing above $1 million, Wahlberg's supply numbers are the more immediate concern. Competing in a segment with 17.8 months of supply calls for different pricing and marketing decisions than competing in a segment where buyers are chasing a shrinking pool of listings. Areas with active new construction, like the Mullan Road corridor, are where Wahlberg said supply has grown fastest and prices have stabilized, which is instructive for anyone trying to gauge where new inventory is easing the crunch rather than adding to the glut at the top.
For buyers at the other end of the market, the undersupply Wahlberg flagged below the median is showing up in specific projects rather than across the board. The first completed homes in the Scott Street-Ravara development went up for sale in January 2026, and 27 more, including 21 income-qualified condos, arrived that spring through Front Step Community Land Trust, which sold three homes in 2025 at a median price of $257,028. Those numbers sit nowhere near the University District's median, which is exactly the point: the citywide figure was never going to tell you where to find them.
If you're comparing Missoula neighborhoods right now, start with what a specific block is zoned for going forward, not just what its last few sales closed at. Median prices are backward-looking. Zoning maps are forward-looking, and this year they're pointing different neighborhoods in different directions.
FAQ
Is Missoula a buyer's or seller's market right now? It depends heavily on price tier. Overall supply sat around five months at the end of 2025, close to balanced, but homes above $1 million carried about 17.8 months of supply while homes at or below the median were in short supply, according to Missoula Organization of REALTORS data reported this spring.
Will the new zoning code lower home values in older neighborhoods like the Rattlesnake? The code took effect March 4, 2026, and its price effects will play out over years, not months, as new density is actually built. What's documented now is the zoning designation itself: most of the Lower Rattlesnake historic district is zoned for higher density under the new map, a real change from its previous status.
Where can I find income-qualified or land trust homes in Missoula? Front Step Community Land Trust has been the primary local source, including new units at the Scott Street-Ravara development that came online starting in January 2026, with 27 more, including 21 income-qualified condos, added that spring.
Comparing neighborhoods on a single median price will always miss the parts of the story that matter most for your specific move, whether that's a zoning line running through a historic district or a supply imbalance sitting above your price point. Bethany Taylor tracks these shifts block by block across Missoula and the surrounding valleys. If you're weighing where to buy or wondering what your current home is actually worth in this split market, get a complimentary valuation and start the conversation with real numbers instead of a citywide average.
